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Industry executives predict that the lack of chips will continue for two years

【概要描述】ASML, the sole maker of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, said it expects chip shortages to continue for at least the next two years. The warning comes from suppliers that ASML relies on, including Carl Zeiss, a major German manufacturer of key lenses; Zeiss, in turn, has also been affected by supply chain issues.

A Zeiss representative told British photography magazine Amateur Photographer: "Of course, in photography we at Zeiss are also affected by semiconductor shortages and rising component prices."

Industry executives predict that the lack of chips will continue for two years

【概要描述】ASML, the sole maker of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, said it expects chip shortages to continue for at least the next two years. The warning comes from suppliers that ASML relies on, including Carl Zeiss, a major German manufacturer of key lenses; Zeiss, in turn, has also been affected by supply chain issues.

A Zeiss representative told British photography magazine Amateur Photographer: "Of course, in photography we at Zeiss are also affected by semiconductor shortages and rising component prices."

  • 分类:Industry news
  • 发布时间:2020-03-25 18:23
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ASML, the sole maker of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, said it expects chip shortages to continue for at least the next two years. The warning comes from suppliers that ASML relies on, including Carl Zeiss, a major German manufacturer of key lenses; Zeiss, in turn, has also been affected by supply chain issues.

A Zeiss representative told British photography magazine Amateur Photographer: "Of course, in photography we at Zeiss are also affected by semiconductor shortages and rising component prices."

"They obviously need to produce more lenses," ASML chief executive Peter Wennink told the Financial Times; but as he explained, that means Zeiss has to "build clean rooms; they need to start getting building permits, start Organizing the construction of the new factory. Once the factory is ready, the manufacturing equipment needs to be ordered, the manpower needs to be hired; then...it takes more than 12 months to make the lens.”

An ASML spokesman declined to provide further comment. Shortly before Wennink made these supply shortage estimates, industry leaders announced increased investment in fab capacity in the U.S. and Europe; for example, Intel announced plans to invest $800 in semiconductor capacity in the European Union. billion euros (about 88 billion U.S. dollars) to strengthen its supply chain and reduce its reliance on Asian chip manufacturing.

“The recent chip shortage reminds us of the risks of being too dependent on any one region in the short term. Today, 80% of chips are produced in Asia;” Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, according to the European edition of EE Times "Our landmark pan-European investment meets global demand for more balanced and resilient supply chains," he said in an online press conference in mid-March.

However, it may be a long time before global supply chains see any return on these investments; rebalancing supply and demand also remains a concern. Jim McGregor, founder and principal analyst at market research firm Tirias Research, explained that this is because new fabs can take years to come online, and the time and cost constraints required to produce next-generation chips remain challenges.

“You have to understand that we don’t build old fabs, we only build new fabs. All the construction that is going on or planned by companies like GlobalFoundries, TSMC, Samsung, Intel, etc., is for brand new They will need new equipment, and EUV is definitely a bottleneck, especially since only ASML is currently producing EUV equipment, and those equipment are huge and expensive.”

McGregor agreed that the supply chain crisis will continue for at least the next two years, and possibly longer; it all depends on how quickly fabs can make newer chips to rebalance supply and demand.

"In a broader sense, we are still facing semiconductor shortages for at least the next two years," he said. "It will take a long time to bring new capacity online, and it will take a while to meet demand. Currently, a lot of capacity shortages are Happened on older process nodes, including older 2D semiconductor products like 45nm, 65nm, and even 28nm."

"We need to move these products to a new generation of processes, new technologies," McGregor noted. "A lot of times people don't want to move these products because they're expensive, they don't want to renew the reticle kit, they don't want to recertify. But throughout the life cycle Some of these products will eventually enter a new generation; it will take up to two years, and as long as demand continues, we can reach a true supply and demand balance again.”

However, overcapacity remains a relevant issue. Wennink tried to assuage concerns about a possible oversupply when he released ASML's 2021 annual report in early February; he further pointed out that this year's semiconductor industry capital spending is expected to be the total for 2021, thanks to the joint efforts of manufacturers in the United States, Europe, China, and Japan and South Korea Double the $150 billion, "which raises concerns about a potential oversupply."

But he believes, "'The significant growth prospects of the semiconductor industry do require more capacity; with a view to the high levels of capital expenditures that support all of this, industry partners will do enough to maintain an accessible, efficient Innovation ecosystem."

McGregor believes that although the possibility of oversupply is not guaranteed to happen, it definitely exists; especially considering the impact of geopolitical and economic shocks on the chip industry; "Oversupply is definitely possible, even if demand remains unchanged, Assuming no economic impact, no industry correction, we could still go down that path. Especially if you consider that Intel is currently trying to build four new fabs, and there are related plans from TSMC, Samsung, and others.”

He further pointed out: "If you add up all the capacity that may come online, there will be oversupply, and this will not be the first time; Micron's fab in Lehi, Utah, USA has been idle for more than ten years, Intel's Although Fab 42 is now at full capacity, it has been idle for more than ten years before. Oversupply has occurred, and there is no doubt that it will happen again.”

"Part of this, however, is not just about catching up with demand, but a rebalancing of manufacturing," McGregor said. "I made this point five years ago when I said, 'Think about it, reality. The situation is that we have more than 50% of our semiconductor manufacturing capacity in areas threatened by communist regimes.' That's a scary thought, but the situation is even scarier today than it was five years ago."

He concluded: "Part of this is also about rebalancing, because geopolitics have gone like crazy over the past few years and we don't know what's going to happen; even if we overestimate demand, in other parts of Asia - especially Europe And North America -- having more manufacturing capacity, it's still pretty important."

This article was simultaneously published in the May 2022 issue of Taiwan Edition "Electronic Engineering Special" magazine

Editor in charge: Judith Cheng

(Reference to the original text: ASML Warns Chip Shortages to Continue Over Next Two Years, By Stefani Munoz)

Editor in charge: Amy.wu

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